The calls for an altcoins season are growing louder day-by-day as Bitcoin dominance has dropped to lower levels. Many traders and investors eagerly watch the Altseason Index, hoping to spot signs of a market-wide rally in altcoins.
So is it here yet?
Altseason Still a Way Off
Analyst Cas Abbé points out that focusing on the monthly Altseason Index can be misleading and says we are nowhere close to an Altseason. Instead of focusing on the monthly index, the analyst suggests examining the yearly Altseason Index for a more accurate picture.
Notably, the majority of altcoins have not yet reached new all-time highs, a critical benchmark that signals the start of an Altseason.
Abbé notes that Bitcoin dominance keeps making lower highs and lower lows, which is pushing the altcoin market cap to new highs. Once Bitcoin dominance falls below 55%, altcoins could start running hard. It is currently at 57%.
Crypto trader Doctor Profit also pointed out that some people in the crypto community are calling every small altcoin rally an “Altseason,” even when the broader market hasn’t truly entered one.
Meanwhile, the CoinMarketCap (CMC) Altcoin Season Index currently sits at 77, indicating that altcoins are showing strong relative strength compared to Bitcoin. While it’s not yet a full-blown Altseason, this level suggests growing momentum and sets the stage for potential gains in the coming weeks.
Q4 Crypto Rally Ahead?
The Fed recently cut rates by 25 basis points. Analyst Virtual Bacon notes that this is a bullish setup heading into Q4. He notes that Bitcoin gains support from macro liquidity, while large-cap altcoins like ETH, SOL, XRP, and BNB are already seeing rotation.
As Bitcoin dominance trends down, altcoins are positioned to benefit, creating tailwinds for an eventual Altseason. A liquidity wave is coming in Q4, with Bitcoin and large caps likely to lead the way, followed by broader altcoin rotation.
Analyst Lark Davis notes that Bitcoin is having its best September ever. Historically, when September ends in the green, Q4 tends to be extremely bullish. However, Bitcoin is currently trading at $115,722, and analyst Ali Martinez warns that losing the $115,440 support level could spell trouble ahead for $BTC.
The bottom line? Altcoins are gaining strength, but we may not be in a full Altseason yet. Bitcoin and big altcoins could see gains in Q4 with trends in play. The next wave of opportunities are fast approaching.
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