In conversation with  Alpha First, former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has offered bold forecasts on bitcoin and the larger crypto market. He has discussed on what we could see in the next 12 months in light of the Trump’s policies and the possible changes in the global economy. 

Favorable Environment For BTC Growth

He believes that with the potential policies of the Trump administration, particularly around monetary easing and credit distribution, we could see significant inflation in the U.S. This, he argues, is likely to benefit Bitcoin, which is already performing better than U.S. bank credit.

Hayes pointed out that nationalistic economic policies are not just a U.S. phenomenon—as other countries, like China and Japan, are also focusing on internal economic growth. He thinks this trend could create a favorable environment for Bitcoin as people seek decentralized assets over globalization.

Altcoins, Memecoins, NFTs and More

Coming to the broader crypto market, he emphasized the importance of diversification, even though Bitcoin’s position remains dominant. He noted that retail investors start exploring various assets, including meme coins and NFTs, Layer-1 and Layer-2 solutions, and gaming-related tokens, as Bitcoin’s price rises.

Hayes noted that “Bitcoin leads the market and then everyone invests down the stack of all the other things because, at the end of the day the goal is I want to earn more crypto, not just go back into Fiat which I know intrinsically is going to zero.”  

He also highlighted the excitement around meme coins due to their rapid price increases; however, he also warned about their volatility. Hayes discussed a coin motivated by a government event that shot to a $2 billion market cap in just 9 days. He also touched down on Dogecoin and noted that it’s possible that it could go to one dollar. He also wished he had bought some calling it as ‘too good.’

Lessons from Market Cycles 

Hayes also emphasized the importance of maintaining discipline and avoiding the trap of believing that every asset’s value will always rise. With the market getting crowded with speculations, Hayes has advised both beginners and experienced traders to be careful with their decisions. 

Reflecting on past market cycles, Hayes advised investors to take profits as they make significant gains and avoid letting emotions influence their decisions. He also shared that if you make some life-changing money for your situation, then take some ‘chips off the table’ and that there’s always a time to come back into the market. 

He predicts that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by the end of this year and possibly $250,000 by the end of 2025, driven by the growing institutional interest and the influx of capital from traditional finance sectors.

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