- Arthur Hayes says the 4-year bull cycle is dead.
- This sentiment is being echoed across the crypto community.
- If true, then the market top still has a long way to go.
This ongoing crypto market has shown many signs that it is different from previous bull markets so far. One of the primary reasons behind this phenomenon is that the classic 4-year bull cycle is nearing its end. So far, many crypto experts have confirmed this. To highlight, Arthur Hayes says the 4-year cycle is dead, meaning the bear market is not around the corner just yet.
Arthur Hayes Says the 4-Year Cycle Is Dead
So far, the ongoing crypto bull cycle has deviated from many of the structural patterns observed in previous bull cycles. To highlight, the price of BTC went on to set its ATH before the Bitcoin Halving event, something that has never occurred before. Next, an ETH pump and altseason did not arrive in Q1 following the Bitcoin Halving event, marking another deviation from the norm.
What’s more, Bitcoin went on to set multiple new ATH prices throughout 2024 and 2025, meanwhile, ETH has only set 1 new ATH price this entire bull cycle, with only a handful of altcoins setting new ATH prices of their own. This has further delayed the arrival of altseason and has increased the possibility for BTC to continue to set greater ATH targets before Bitcoin Dominance can give in to altcoin dominance.
Already, several crypto leaders and experts like Charles Hoskinson and Lark Davis have discussed the possibility of the 4-year bull cycle coming to an end. Hoskinson said that the Wild West years for crypto are over, and another reputed face in the community has predicted that Bitcoin and crypto could move in year-long cycles like stocks from here on. As we can see from the post above, Arthur Hayes adds to the discussion.
In detail, Arthur Hayes says that the 4-year cycle is dead, and a new bear market is not around the corner. In fact, he says that Bitcoin doesn’t pump because of halvings, but rather only when liquidity flows, and past crashes weren’t caused by supply-demand cool-offs, but were rather caused by monetary tightening. At the moment, global liquidity is expanding again, and with the Fed cutting interest rates, Eastern markets warming to crypto, the money is about to get cheaper and plentiful, which means the market top still has a long way to go.
Bear Market Is Not Around the Corner Just Yet
Another analyst adds to this outlook, saying that the 4-year cycle might be over now, with the reason being that there is no euphoria or blow-off top price action similar to previous bull cycles. Additionally, it is also clear that liquidity is expected to substantially increase in Q4 and Q1 2026. The analyst concludes by saying that he expects Bitcoin to extend the rally in 2026 and establish itself as a true macro asset.
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