- Long-term holders grow stronger during market dips and control most of the Bitcoin supply.
- Short-term activity spikes during rallies but fades as prices stabilize.
- The chart suggests Bitcoin may follow past cycles with potential for a rally in 2025.
Benjamin Cowen’s Bitcoin HODL Waves chart reveals intriguing insights into investor behavior, showcasing how holding patterns have evolved over the years. With over 63K views, his data-driven visualization underscores the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price action, intertwined with holding durations.
The chart clearly shows the dominance of lasting holders , particularly those holding for 5+ years, swelling during market bottoms. These waves peaked notably in 2023 and 2025, suggesting investor confidence in Bitcoin’s macro trends. On the contrary, short-term holders , typically those holding 1 month or less, dwindled during these periods, reflecting less speculative activity.
The Relationship Between Holding Periods and Market Cycles
Looking back, LTHs (>5 years) comprised over 60% of all holdings during the 2018 bear market, indicating strong accumulation at low prices. Similarly, their share peaked at around 70% in early 2023, a period marked by suppressed price activity. By early 2025, as Bitcoin approaches potential bull market phases, these long-term holdings remain dominant, maintaining over 65% of the total supply.
In contrast, STHs (<3 months) reached their highest levels during Bitcoin’s bull runs, such as late 2017 and **2021, as prices climbed exponentially. These short-lived spikes in STH activity hint at speculative buying, often preceding price corrections. For instance, STH holdings surged to 30% during the 2021 bull run but contracted significantly by 2023, suggesting profit-taking by newer investors.
The Predictable Rhythm of Market Cycles
Interestingly, the HODL Waves chart aligns well with Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle. Peaks in LTH activity coincided with market bottoms, while spikes in STH activity aligned with euphoric price rallies. Cowen’s analysis implies that as Bitcoin enters 2025, LTH dominance could pave the way for another bull run, just as it did in 2019 and 2020.
With 5+ year holders commanding the majority share, the market seems primed for a significant move. Historically, such dominance has preceded major price rallies, like in 2019 and 2021. Bitcoin could see a renewed rally if history rhymes, with STHs surging as prices climb. However, caution remains critical—spikes in short-term activity often herald market tops.
In conclusion, Benjamin Cowen’s HODL Waves chart acts as a historical log and a crystal ball, mapping out Bitcoin’s past and hinting at its future. Will Bitcoin’s price trajectory in 2025 mirror its previous cycles? Only time—and HODLers—will tell.
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