- Bitcoin’s cycle peaks have declined from 15× to below 2.65× the 2-Year SMA, indicating reduced volatility and speculative excess.
- The current 2.65× resistance level is around $159,000, serving as a critical threshold Bitcoin has yet to surpass this cycle.
- A consistent downtrend in oscillator peaks suggests that Bitcoin’s market structure is maturing, with softened but sustained bullish trends.
A long-term chart analysis of Bitcoin using the 2-Year Simple Moving Average (SMA) Multiplier reveals a key trend in declining bull market peaks across cycles. In the past, significant rallies have pushed Bitcoin up above its 2-year average, although the gap between them has narrowed these days. Even as Bitcoin adoption and maturity increase, there’s a noticeable slowing down of its strong upward moves every cycle.
From 15× to 2.65×: Bitcoin’s Compression of Peak Multiples
In Bitcoin’s early years, price peaks reached extreme levels relative to the 2-Year SMA baseline. The 2011 bull run saw Bitcoin rally to nearly 15× above the 2-Year SMA, according to the chart. This was followed by a top at 10× above the average during the 2017 cycle. In 2021, the peak compressed further to 5×, with a final push failing to exceed 2.65×.
This trend is highlighted in the chart by a descending resistance line that connects five major oscillator peaks labeled 1 through 5. The most recent peak—point 5—continues this pattern of weakening blow-off tops, with the oscillator barely approaching the 2.65× band.
Current Position: Struggling to Break the 2.65× Threshold
At present, Bitcoin has yet to breach the 2.65× multiplier, a level that now sits near $159,000 based on current calculations. This key resistance acts as a psychological and structural ceiling in the context of this cycle. The price has consistently failed to push beyond this zone, which analysts suggest may signal a shift in the nature of market rallies—less parabolic and more measured.
Despite this, the chart also shows that Bitcoin remains comfortably above its 2-Year SMA x1 (black line), indicating a sustained bullish structure on a long-term scale. The oscillator (blue line), which measures deviations from the mean, shows increasingly lower highs, reinforcing the thesis that each bull cycle yields less excess than the previous one.
Bitcoin Shows Slower Growth, Signals Market Maturity
This decrease in multiples means prices might not grow as fast, but may also show that the market is maturing. The rise in liquidity, interest from institutions, and more investors are possible reasons for Bitcoin’s journey. Additionally, as the asset grows, the returns may naturally taper due to higher capital requirements for major upward moves.
Analysts note that although price tops are appearing “softer,” Bitcoin remains structurally bullish. The continued positioning above the long-term moving average and the narrowing range between the 2× and 2.65× bands suggests that while explosive gains may lessen, upward potential remains intact in a more stable form.
Bitcoin’s market behavior is evolving. The multiplier model reflects a consistent trend of diminishing returns per cycle, with resistance currently forming near 2.65× the 2Y average. Long-term growth remains feasible, though expectations of extreme rallies may need revising as the asset enters a more mature phase.
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