- Bitcoin holders withdraw over 208,000 BTC from exchanges, signaling strong long-term confidence.
- Analysts note a reversed fractal resembling 2022’s bottom, hinting at potential bullish structure.
- Short-term momentum stays weak, but long-term outlook points toward a possible rebound.
Bitcoin — BTC, has dropped about 14% since October 6, but investors don’t seem worried. Instead of panic selling, holders are tightening their grip. Over 208,000 BTC have quietly moved off exchanges during the decline. Analysts now see an intriguing pattern that mirrors the 2022 bottom—only this time, it’s flipped in reverse. Could history be repeating itself upside down? Some traders think so, and the data might support that theory.
Investors Are Holding, Not Selling
Despite the recent pullback, Bitcoin’s exchange balances keep shrinking. According to Santiment data, 208,980 fewer BTC sit on exchanges than six months ago. That equals about 1.08% less circulating supply ready to sell. When coins leave exchanges, it usually signals holder confidence. Fewer coins available for trade mean less pressure on prices.
Even as the chart turns red, sentiment feels calm. Bitcoin is falling, but the market doesn’t look fearful. Traders appear patient, waiting for stronger signals before taking action. This steady behavior contrasts sharply with the chaos of previous corrections, where panic selling was common.
Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, shared an interesting perspective on X (formerly Twitter). He noted that Bitcoin’s current structure looks like a reflection of late 2022’s accumulation phase. Back then, the price hovered between $15,000 and $18,000 before breaking higher. Today, the same sideways bend appears near the $105,000 to $110,000 zone—only inverted.
Short-Term Weakness, Long-Term Potential
Bitcoin’s near-term momentum still looks weak. The daily chart shows the price sliding toward $104,500, with back-to-back red candles. Sellers remain in control for now. The RSI indicator sits close to oversold levels, hinting at fading strength. Meanwhile, the MACD stays below the signal line, confirming ongoing bearish pressure. Structurally, this setup leaves Bitcoin open to a quick dip toward $102K or $103K. Buyers need to defend those levels soon to avoid deeper correction.
However, even within short-term weakness, long-term structure remains constructive. A measured pullback often clears out leverage and resets sentiment, preparing the stage for another rally. If the 2022 fractal continues to mirror in reverse, Bitcoin might just be coiling for another strong leg higher. The absence of panic selling and consistent outflows from exchanges both support this view. Confidence seems intact among long-term holders, who see dips as opportunities, not threats.
Bitcoin’s 14% correction mirrors 2022’s base pattern but in reverse form. Exchange balances continue to drop, suggesting holders remain confident. Technical signals hint at short-term weakness, yet the broader trend stays intact. If history truly rhymes, this pullback might become the foundation for the next major move upward.
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