- Bitcoin rose 18% since April 22 while gold declined 8%, signaling a market shift.
- Fund flows show money moving from gold ETFs into Bitcoin and crypto funds recently.
- Several U.S. states now include Bitcoin in reserves, boosting long-term support for crypto.
According to JPMorgan analysts, Bitcoin could outperform gold later on in 2025. The prediction is based on recent changes in the market due to several corporate acquisitions and higher adoption by U.S. states. The Block report shows that Bitcoin is making headway at the cost of gold, due to changing trends among investors.
Zero-Sum Shift Between Bitcoin and Gold
The traditional hedging strategy known as the debasement trade, involving gold and Bitcoin as safeguards against currency weakening, shifted in 2025. Previously, investors increased holdings in both assets simultaneously.
However, recent data reveals a zero-sum game emerging. From mid-February to mid-April, gold showed gains while bitcoin lagged. Conversely, the past three weeks saw Bitcoin rise as gold declined.
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, JPMorgan’s managing director, says that the battle between stocks and bonds will likely continue for the rest of the year. Analysis by the firm demonstrates Bitcoin’s growth over the past weeks has come alongside an 8% decline in gold since April 22, with Bitcoin rising by 18% over that same period.
Fund Flows Confirm Market Rotation
Investor movements support this zero-sum dynamic. Outflows from gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have occurred simultaneously with inflows into spot Bitcoin and crypto-focused funds over the last three weeks. Additionally, futures data reveals a reduction in gold positions while bitcoin futures holdings increased.
Earlier in 2025, the pattern reversed, with gold gaining ground while bitcoin followed risk assets lower. Corporate actors have contributed to Bitcoin’s momentum. Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, plans to increase Bitcoin purchases substantially.
The company aims to raise an additional $42 billion by 2027 for bitcoin acquisitions. So far, it has achieved 60% of its initial funding goal. Alongside Strategy, Metaplanet also continues to increase its Bitcoin holdings, reflecting broader institutional interest.
U.S. States Incorporate Bitcoin Into Reserves
Bitcoin’s rising role in public sector reserves marks a notable development. New Hampshire permits up to 5% of its state assets to be allocated between Bitcoin and gold. Arizona is developing a digital asset reserve funded by staking rewards and airdrops.
The state has also committed to maintaining tax levels during this process. JPMorgan’s report notes more U.S. states may consider adding Bitcoin to their reserves, which could provide sustained support for the cryptocurrency’s price.
JPMorgan expects the ongoing competition between gold and bitcoin to shape the market through 2025’s second half. The firm’s bias leans toward bitcoin benefiting from crypto-specific factors and growing institutional and state-level support. This outlook indicates a possible sustained period where Bitcoin outperforms gold amid the evolving financial landscape.
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