- Bitcoin’s Risk Cap decline signals short-term pressure near $64K.
- Altcoin season may emerge as liquidity shifts post-April.
- Market cycles hint at a Bitcoin rebound by October 2025.
Bitcoin’s price structure signals short-term bearish pressure despite its sustained long-term uptrend. The Risk Cap metric, which tracks market capitalization shifts, has weakened, indicating a potential correction before any sustained recovery.
Bitcoin and Altcoins Market Trends Implications and Future Outlook
A recent assessment from Alphractal identifies a decline in Bitcoin’s market capitalization momentum. The Risk Cap metric peaked in March 2024, followed by a lower peak in December, reflecting reduced bullish strength. Historically, such patterns have preceded corrective phases before the next upward cycle begins.
Source: Joao Wedson
Market data suggests that Bitcoin has struggled to sustain higher valuations due to declining speculative activity. Previous Risk Cap trends reveal that similar phases often result in short-term price pullbacks. Despite bearish signals, Bitcoin’s broader trajectory remains upward, aligning with past market cycles.
Analyst Insights on Market Shifts and Liquidity Trends
The technical study conducted by market researcher Joao Wedson identifies that Bitcoin may face further downside before a possible recovery. Wedson remains bearish in the short term, stating that Bitcoin’s price could drop to $64K while still preserving its long-term bullish trend. He also indicates that an altcoin season could gain traction after April, with liquidity shifting toward emerging projects.
Wedson’s analysis draws comparisons to 2021 when Bitcoin briefly declined before reaching new highs later in the cycle. His findings show that past market corrections have often preceded strong altcoin rallies. Despite the current weakness, he acknowledges that Bitcoin may still set a new all-time high by October 2025.
Alphractal’s data in his analysis reinforce that Bitcoin remains within its historical boom-and-bust cycle, with speculative phases driving short-term volatility. If the Risk Cap continues to decline, Bitcoin could experience further corrections before renewed buying interest emerges. Future price movements will depend on market conditions and liquidity shifts.
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