BTC traders cautiously optimistic, ETH traders hedge actively as $17B monthly options expiry

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October’s options expiry may bring additional volatility to BTC and ETH prices, based on positions of maximum pain. A total of $17B in options are expiring on Friday on Deribit. 

Close to $17B in monthly options are expiring on Deribit this Friday. Open interest on Deribit is at over $45B for longer-term options, standing near a one-year high. This month’s event is smaller compared to September’s $22B options expiry. 

The monthly options will expire on Friday at 08:00 UTC, with the potential for volatility in the interim. Ahead of the options expiry, BTC traded at $109,881, once again losing its previous positions. ETH traded at $3,982.21. 

BTC options point to cautiously bullish trading

Deribit analysis suggests traders are positioned as cautiously bullish, based on the ratio of call to put options. The options traders are no longer actively hedging for a significant downside. BTC is currently trading below the maximum pain expiration at $114,000. 

BTC and ETH prepare for $17B monthly options expiry
The October options expiry is relatively small, showing cautious optimism for BTC traders. | Source: Coinglass

The pressure to hedge for a downside eased as the US-China trade tension diminished. 

The ETH monthly options are expiring with a 1.25 put-to-call ratio, signaling much greater caution. The max pain for the expiry is at $4.1K. ETH is now positioned as a more volatile asset, with put options outweighing calls. 

Despite the interest of whales, ETH traders are more cautious, expecting a shift to a lower valuation. ETH sees significant demand from ETF buyers and DAT companies, but the price remains more volatile, causing the need for more hedging. 

BTC sentiment shifts to fear

Ahead of the options expiry, BTC sentiment shifted to fear, dropping from 51 points to 24 points. BTC spent a few days with neutral sentiment, but the recovery was short-lived. 

Based on the current liquidation heatmap, BTC may see some upside moves in the short term. Following the options expiry, BTC may seek a new price range. Currently, short liquidity has rebuilt all the way up to $117,000, potentially setting up a short squeeze. 

The monthly options expiry event may add to the market pressures, as BTC continues with more volatile trading. Current BTC volatility is at a six-month peak at 1.93%.

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