- Bitcoin has confirmed a new phase as the weekly candle successfully closed above the $109400 key level.
- Price remains within a bullish path that continues to follow the expected market structure step by step.
- If momentum stays above support the trend could expand before any signs of distribution become visible ahead.
Bitcoin (BTC) has officially entered Stage 2.4 of the market cycle, defined as “Trend Continuation,” with weekly confirmation above $109,400. The chart, shared by Gert van Lagen, outlines the complete cycle phases of accumulation, breakout, and possible future distribution. This move places BTC in an advanced stage of its bullish phase and suggests further upside may unfold.
Market Cycle Progression Aligns With Classic StructureS
The current structure closely follows the standard four-stage market model. According to the annotated chart, BTC began its recovery in late 2022 with Stage 1.1, labeled “Start Accumulation Phase.” This early phase was marked by low volatility and gradual base formation, signaling the end of a long bearish cycle.
By early 2023, Bitcoin transitioned into Stage 1.2 and 1.3, with a fast price move followed by a period of “Building Pre-Tension.” A breakout above the consolidation zone triggered Stage 1.4, kicking off the first clear trend continuation. Prices advanced steadily through mid-2023 into Stage 2.1, noted as “Re-Accumulation.”
The cycle’s pace picked up during Stage 2.2, a second fast upward move, and was briefly paused by Stage 2.3 “Building Pre-Tension.” Now, Bitcoin has confirmed Stage 2.4. This stage is characterized by strong momentum and new highs as the market moves into expansion. A weekly candle close above $109,400 meets the structural confirmation.
Key Confirmation Metrics and Invalidation Levels
The analysis defines specific technical benchmarks for trend validation and potential breakdown. BTC must maintain weekly closes above $109,400 to stay in the confirmed uptrend. This level acts as the confirmation threshold for Stage 2.4 to remain valid.
Should Bitcoin fall below $80,200 on a weekly closing basis, the entire structure becomes invalidated. This would break the macro uptrend and signal a possible early entrance into distribution. Furthermore, if the duration between Stage 2.2 and 2.4 confirmation exceeds the earlier 2.1 to 2.2 interval, the pattern loses its timing integrity.
These conditions create a tightly defined path forward. Staying within the confirmed zone keeps Bitcoin in the bullish structure, while deviation below the key metrics signals risk. This binary setup allows traders to set firm strategies with minimal ambiguity, based on price behavior and phase progression.
Could BTC Enter Stage 3 Distribution or Push to New Highs?
With BTC now in Stage 2.4, a pivotal question arises: will Bitcoin advance to fresh highs or begin early distribution? Stage 3.1, the “Start Distribution Phase,” typically follows the top of the expansion cycle. In that phase, price growth slows and volatility increases. A loss of upward momentum leads into Stage 3.3, where pre-tension builds again but within a weakening trend.
For now, the structure suggests continued strength. BTC remains well above major moving averages, and price action mirrors prior bullish cycles. If momentum holds, Bitcoin may extend toward higher resistance zones before Stage 3.1 takes shape.
However, as shown in the long-term diagram, distribution may follow quickly once momentum fades. Stage 4.1, marked as “Re-Distribution,” often signals the onset of major declines. Market participants are watching the price action near $109,400 closely, as this level may decide the next major trend direction.
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