Bitcoin, after hitting the glorious high of $109K, is hanging at $80K below its crucial level. It is at a crucial point as it faces economic uncertainty with Trump’s second innings and new tariffs impacting global markets. Similar to his last presidency, in 2018, BTC dropped 72% under similar conditions—will history repeat, or is BTC ready to break the trend? There is no doubt that the current crypto market is at a critical turning point, and with the Government’s plan to use the existing bitcoin the market is back to square one.
Experts at 10x Research believe history is repeating itself. 10x Research analysts warn that investors should be extra careful, as past bull runs have followed a similar pattern—starting with extreme hype and ending in sharp losses.
The Same Story, Different Year
Every crypto bull run begins with big promises and catchy slogans, convincing people that prices will never stop rising. But when the hype dies down, reality kicks in. 10x Research points out that in 2017, Ripple (XRP) became the second-largest cryptocurrency, but in 2021, it couldn’t reclaim its position. Similarly, Ethereum was the star of the last bull run with DeFi and NFTs, but now, in 2025, meme coins and Solana are leading the hype.
The majority of coins failed to impress this year. Solana is down 59% from its peak and is currently battling the $120-$130 support range. A break below could signal a further downside. Recently, Trump’s Solana-based meme coin, TRUMP, also plunged to $10.50, dropping over 85% from its January peak of $73.43. The decline aligns with broader market selloffs, as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and traditional indices face losses.
Institutions Win, Retail Investors Struggle
Another pattern is how big institutions take advantage of the market while smaller investors lose out. In past cycles, institutions profited by trading the interest rate differences between DeFi and traditional finance. This time, they’re making money from the gap between the Bitcoin spot and futures markets. Meanwhile, everyday traders are realizing how difficult it is to compete in a game they can’t control.
Will History Repeat?
This cycle differs from 2018 mainly due to the rise of Bitcoin ETFs, which have attracted massive institutional inflows, countering economic pressures. While Trump’s new tariffs have shaken markets and strengthened the U.S. dollar, Bitcoin has shown resilience by holding key support levels. Exchange balances are at a six-year low, signaling strong accumulation, and large withdrawals suggest growing investor confidence.
However, Crypto analyst Lark Davis warns against nostalgia for Trump’s past policies, arguing that his administration in the past was harmful to crypto. While Trump’s current actions are causing short-term market pain, Davis believes they will ultimately set the stage for an explosive bull run.
On the other hand, Rekt Capital highlights that Bitcoin corrections are a natural part of every bull cycle. In this run alone, BTC has seen multiple pullbacks, with the latest reaching -28 %, reinforcing the idea that dips are expected in strong uptrends.
You don't have to look at the previous #BTC bull runs to understand that corrections are a part of the cycle
This bull run alone, Bitcoin has retraced:
• -22%
• -22%
• -21%
• -32%
• And now -28% thus far$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/NzHFFAaXyn— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) March 10, 2025
What Next?
Crypto analyst Michael Nadeau suggests that Bitcoin’s returns are shrinking each cycle, with on-chain data showing a clear pattern. Long-term holder MVRV peaks have dropped consistently, and Bitcoin’s cycle gains have also declined—from 80x in 2017 to 20x in 2021 and now just 6.6x in 2025. While it’s unclear if this cycle has peaked, he believes the data points to a top being in.
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