Dogecoin (DOGE) is up 5% this Friday. The spike follows renewed optimism surrounding the approval of a spot Dogecoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). The recent rally came after the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) formally acknowledged filings from Grayscale to list a DOGE ETF.
On February 13, the SEC acknowledged Grayscale’s Form 19b-4 filings for the Grayscale Dogecoin Trust, alongside an XRP Trust, officially starting the countdown for the regulatory review process.
According to Polymarket data, the odds of a Dogecoin ETF approval have jumped to 62%. This marks a sharp increase from just 27% in January. However, the odds for a pre-July 31 approval stand at 33%.
Crypto analyst Valentin Fournier looked into the future market impact, saying:
“The SEC has accepted ETF applications for XRP and Dogecoin, adding to a growing list of altcoin ETF reviews, including Solana and Litecoin. If approved, these products could significantly expand institutional access to altcoins, injecting liquidity and potentially setting the stage for an alt-season later this year.”
Dogecoin’s position in ETF considerations
Unlike XRP, Dogecoin does not face the same regulatory scrutiny over its status as a security. The cryptocurrency shares several characteristics with Bitcoin, which the SEC has already approved for ETF products.
Several companies, including Rex Osprey and Bitwise, have also filed for a Dogecoin ETF. Akin to BTC and ETH ETFs, more may follow as the regulatory process unfolds. Market watchers are closely monitoring the SEC’s actions, as approval could mark a major milestone in Dogecoin’s evolution from a meme cryptocurrency to a more mainstream investment asset.
There’s a growing positive sentiment concerning ETF approvals for other crypto assets, which multiplied after President Donald Trump entered the White House. A flurry of financial institutions believe the post-Gary Gensler SEC is taking a more crypto-friendly approach and will greenlight more ETFs in the first half of 2025.
Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas estimate a 75% chance that a Dogecoin ETF will be approved by the end of 2025.
Other filings, including those for XRP, Solana, and Litecoin ETFs, are also under SEC review, but XRP’s approval is facing additional legal hurdles due to its ongoing lawsuit with the agency.
Will Dogecoin ever match Bitcoin’s dominance?
Dogecoin was introduced to the market in December 2013 at a price of $0.00056. As of today, the cryptocurrency is changing hands at $0.2725, a 48,560.71% increase from the debut price level.
For comparison, Bitcoin was valued at approximately $1,200 when Dogecoin launched. While Bitcoin has maintained a more stable growth trajectory and is now trading at levels above $97,000, it has grown by 7,990%, much more lower than the meme coin.
Dogecoin has seen periods of explosive price movement, often influenced by social media trends and endorsements from high-profile figures such as Tesla CEO Elon Musk. The billionaire wears the crypto community on his sleeve; he now runs an official government entity with the same acronym as the token, the Department of Government Efficiency, or D.O.G.E.
Despite its price gains, critics argue that Dogecoin’s unlimited supply makes it a poor store of value compared to Bitcoin. Unlike Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million coin supply, Dogecoin has no cap, and Bitcoin maxis argues that it may not hold value as much as the largest crypto by market cap.
Some traders believe President Trump, under the advise of Musk, will create a Strategic Dogecoin Reserve, but odds of such a move on Polymarket is a mere 10%.
As seen on TradingView, Dogecoin’s technical indicators show a bull run. The crypto’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 70.27. This points to overbought conditions. On the other hand, the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 55.19 also reinforces the current upward momentum.
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