The European Central Bank (ECB) recently decided to hold its benchmark deposit rate steady at 4%. This decision was made even though there was a strong indication that the bank might reduce interest rates at their next meeting in June, should economic conditions permit. The governing council, after deliberating in Frankfurt, confirmed that rates would remain unchanged for now, awaiting more definitive evidence that inflation pressures were easing.

Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, noted that although the majority favored maintaining the rate, a small faction within the policy makers pushed for an immediate reduction. This comes amid signs that inflation, which had peaked at 10.6% in 2022, was aligning closer to the ECB’s target of 2%, registering at 2.4% in March.

Reflecting on Economic Indicators and Market Reactions

Jörg Krämer, chief economist at Commerzbank, suggested that the ECB’s stance strongly hinted at a rate cut by June unless adverse inflation and wage data emerge. Lagarde acknowledged potential fluctuations in inflation, citing “bumps in the road” that could see inflation rates sway in the coming months before settling. She also highlighted that recent trends pointed towards a moderation in wage increases, which might help temper growth risks that are currently skewed to the downside.

When queried about the unanimity of the decision to keep rates steady, Lagarde revealed that only a few members were in favor of a rate cut now but ultimately agreed to join the broad consensus to hold off until at least June. Despite this decision, the immediate market response was muted, with the euro slipping slightly against the dollar and a minor increase in the yield of the 2-year German Bund.

Global Economic Influences and Policy Directions

The ECB’s decisions occur amidst a volatile global economic environment, particularly influenced by recent U.S. inflation data which exceeded expectations. This has led to reduced expectations for rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, influencing market sentiments and expectations similarly towards the ECB and the Bank of England.

However, Lagarde firmly stated the ECB’s stance of being “data-dependent, not Fed-dependent,” emphasizing the differences in inflation dynamics between the eurozone and the U.S. Ann-Katrin Petersen from the BlackRock Investment Institute noted that despite slower growth and deeper policy tightening, the ECB might still be the first to cut rates, albeit more cautiously if the Fed delays its rate cuts.

In response to a question raised by the Financial Times, an ECB governing council member said:-

We are not Switzerland, we are the euro area and can operate independently without worrying about the exchange rate. It would actually be illegal for the ECB to decide policy based on what the Fed was doing.

Financial Times

In a shift from previous communications, the ECB acknowledged that its key rates were contributing significantly to reducing inflation but suggested that an updated assessment in June might justify easing the monetary policy if inflation showed consistent signs of aligning with their targets.

Survey data from the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) indicated stable expectations for inflation and economic growth over the next few years. Forecasts suggest a gradual improvement in economic activity throughout 2024, supported by growth in real wages, with inflation expected to decrease gradually to the 2% target by 2025.

Uncertainties remain, particularly with labor market and wage developments, and geopolitical tensions contributing to risk factors. However, these are counterbalanced by expectations of decreasing unemployment rates and stable longer-term inflation expectations set at 2%.

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