ETH is trading near fair value territory after recovering to just over $3,000. ETH remained more active and speculative compared to BTC, but still not showing signs of a hyped-up rally.
ETH realized price and the market value/realized value ratio indicate a fair price for the asset at the end of November. ETH traded at $3,053.19, moving sideways in the past few days.
Realized price stands at $$2,315, with a MVRV ratio of 1.27. This means that the market price is just 27% above the realized price. At this price level, ETH is not considered overbought or oversold, falling into the neutral category.
The ETH fear and greed index also reflects neutrality, with a value of 49 points. The current level does not guarantee future price moves. At this point, ETH is not overheated and historically does not point to a local top. However, the market remains at risk for further corrections, with lower liquidity and anticipation of selling pressure.
ETH is anticipating its Fusaka update on December 3, but otherwise lacks directional hype. The ETH network posts peak activity, but just like previous seasons, it has not reflected the growth directly. The current price range also continues without the hype of an altcoin season. ETH is showing mid-cycle indicators, with the potential for more sideways trading or unexpected moves, but no clear top signal.
Is ETH shifting its market structure?
Data on Binance measures a slightly different MVRV ratio just below 1. This threshold value may signal a shift in investor behavior. If the ratio drops below one, it may signal a local bottom, but also price weakness and sideways trading.
Historically, an MVRV ratio above 3 signals more exuberance and overbought conditions. Values below one mean investors carry unrealized losses.
ETH has the advantage of being accumulated for years, as whales have also actively tried to lower their acquisition price.
ETH exchange reserves are declining
ETH reserves on exchanges sit at an all-time low, signaling almost no readiness for spot selling. ETH relies on derivative trading, which has accelerated in recent days.
Long-term holders and whales also prefer to retain their coins for staking or use them for DAT companies. Trading has shifted to wrapped tokens, and ETH is widely used as a lending collateral. All of this decreases the need to put ETH directly on centralized exchanges.
Binance holds around 3.87M in ETH, while exchanges carry 16M ETH, down from 20M in July. At the same time, ETH is moving into accumulation wallets, and some is sent into the Beacon chain contract for staking.
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