Ethereum’s on the edge. The whole market’s watching to see if it can close the week above $2,800. That’s the magic number right now. If it can pull it off, we might see a run-up to levels we haven’t hit since spot Ether ETFs started trading back in July. 

But if it can’t hold that line, things could get messy real quick. The stakes are high—like, really high. A slip down to $2,600, for example, could wipe out $1.07 billion in long positions.

Here’s the thing: a lot of traders are feeling more upbeat about the upside. Data from Coinglass shows that only about $400 million would be at risk if Ethereum jumps instead of dips. 

But Jamie Coutts over at Real Vision is throwing up a caution flag. He’s saying, sure, a rally could be in the cards, but it’s not happening unless Ethereum’s network activity kicks up a notch. 

“Fees are at four-year lows,” Coutts posted on Twitter. He also mentioned that while layer-2 adoption is “strong,” it’s just not enough yet. The network needs to wake up, plain and simple.

So, what’s the roadmap from here? Analysts are eyeing some specific levels. To keep the bullish vibes going, Ethereum needs to hold above $2,888. That’s seen as a pretty crucial reversal level. If we stay above that, we’re talking about a solid buying opportunity. 

If Ethereum can’t hold this line, though, we’re looking at a drop to the next key support, which is sitting at $2,253. That number lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. 

Drop below that, and we might be in for a full-on bearish trend.

Looking at the charts, the signs are mixed. There’s a long-term rising trendline that’s been holding up pretty well. But there’s also a short-term falling trendline that’s set to cross the long-term one later this month.

And let’s not forget about on-chain metrics. Ethereum’s Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio is looking interesting. It’s dropped big time to -53.05. That sounds bad, but it might actually be a good thing. 

A lower NVT ratio usually means the market cap isn’t growing as fast as the transaction volume, which some see as a sign of undervaluation. Could this mean we’re near a bottom? 

Maybe. But only time will tell. 

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