The U.S. Federal Reserve has kicked off its two-day FOMC meeting today, and while markets expect no immediate rate change, the real catalyst for Bitcoin and crypto could be Jerome Powell’s speech.There’s a 99% probability that the Fed will hold interest rates steady between 4.25% and 4.50%
Crypto Market on Edge
Bitcoin is trading in a tight range between $92,000 and $97,000, as crypto markets stay cautious ahead of Powell’s speech. The decision might be priced in, but Powell’s stance on inflation, growth, and rate cuts will likely decide whether crypto rallies or dumps.
Markets are increasingly uneasy due to Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, which are inflaming inflation fears and slowing down growth expectations. This points to a classic stagflation setup — where economic growth slows, but inflation stays high.
In such a scenario, the Fed faces a tough choice:
- Hold rates and risk a further economic slowdown
- Start cutting and risk reigniting inflation
Either move has its risks, which is why Powell is cornered.
FOMC Expectations
While Powell publicly maintains a hawkish stance, the Fed’s recent actions tell a different story:
- Quantitative tightening has slowed
- Treasury repurchases have quietly begun
- Balance sheet reduction is happening at a softer pace
These are early signs that the Fed is laying the groundwork for easing — even if it hasn’t said so officially.
And for Bitcoin, that expectation alone can be enough to fuel a rally.
What Next For Crypto Market?
- If Powell sounds dovish, expect a breakout above $97K and renewed crypto momentum.
- If he stays hawkish, markets may retest support near $92K.
The crypto market is laser-focused on the FOMC Meeting Today, and Powell’s tone could set the trend for the rest of Q2.
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