In a stunning display of confidence and risk-taking, an investor recently turned a massive $1.86 million bet into a 35,000 profit by predicting the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on the Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction platform.

$1.86 Million Bet Pays Off

On January 2, a bet was placed on Polymarket predicting the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Traders speculated on whether the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) would keep rates unchanged, cut them by 25+, or raise them by 25 bps or 50 bps.

As the FOMC meeting concluded on January 29, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced that the committee had decided to keep interest rates steady between 4.25% and 4.50%, a decision that many experts had expected.

However, the decision came after three rate cuts in 2024, as the central bank continues to balance a strong economy with inflation rates still above its 2% target.

Eventually, this investor saw an opportunity and took the risk, betting heavily on the prediction that there would be no rate cut and making around $35,000. 

While $35,000 might seem like a small gain compared to the $1.86 million investment, the bet carried a huge risk. If the Fed had decided on a rate cut, this investor could have lost it all.

Impact on the Crypto Market

The FOMC meeting also had ripple effects on the cryptocurrency market. Jerome Powell’s comments about U.S. banks being capable of managing risks associated with crypto clients were seen as a positive signal for the industry.

Following the meeting, the crypto market showed signs of recovery. Bitcoin’s price surged to $106K, reflecting a gain of 5% and altcoins followed suit. Meanwhile, trading activity and investor interest were also high as Bitcoin ETF continued its inflow.

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