Michael Saylor’s Strategy continues to lead the corporate Bitcoin race, now holding the title of the world’s largest publicly listed Bitcoin holder. Despite ongoing debate, its stock trades at a significant premium over its Bitcoin net asset value (NAV), and analysts say it’s justified.
TD Cowen Backs the Premium
In a recent interview with The Block, analysts from global investment bank TD Cowen, Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete, supported the view that Strategy’s premium is rational. They dismissed critics who argue that the stock should track its Bitcoin NAV directly, calling such views “logically flawed.”
As of now:
- Market cap: $124.3 billion
- Bitcoin holdings: $72 billion
- NAV Premium: 72.6%
Rather than being overvalued, TD Cowen believes Strategy’s ability to access low-cost capital sets it apart.
Debunking the “Greater Fools” Theory
Skeptics claim Strategy’s premium is driven by a speculative bubble—a belief that someone else will buy in at a higher price. However, TD Cowen analysts argue that Strategy’s financial engineering, particularly its “42/42” plan, creates intrinsic value.
The 42/42 plan aims to raise $84 billion in equity and debt by 2027. With a blended borrowing rate of just 0.421%, Strategy can:
- Increase Bitcoin per share without dilution
- Create a Bitcoin “yield” effect that ETFs and retail investors cannot replicate
Capital Flywheel Effect: A Unique Advantage
Strategy’s flywheel approach fuels continuous Bitcoin accumulation. Recently:
- Raised $739.8 million via a $21 billion offering
- Bought 6,220 BTC at $118,940 per coin
- Added 3,077 BTC in profit—without issuing new shares
Since January 1, Bitcoin per MSTR share is up 20.8%, doubling compared to 18 months ago. This efficiency amplifies returns beyond typical NAV-based models.
The recent launch of “Stretch” (STRC) preferred stock further supports Strategy’s capital efficiency, offering more tools to expand its Bitcoin holdings without dilution.
Outlook: 900,000 BTC by 2027?
With 607,770 BTC already under its belt, Strategy remains the largest public Bitcoin holder. TD Cowen predicts:
- 900,000 BTC holdings possible by 2027
- Equivalent to 4.3% of all Bitcoin supply
They also maintain a $680 price target on MSTR, citing:
Michael Saylor’s Strategy isn’t just stacking Bitcoin—it’s reshaping how corporations invest. Backed by low-cost capital, long-term vision, and a capital flywheel, TD Cowen believes this NAV premium is not only sustainable but a blueprint for corporate Bitcoin dominance.
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