Ahead of the FOMC meeting on May 7, 2025, the market outlook is cautious but anticipates potential movements. There is a 94% chance the Fed will maintain the 4.25%-4.50% federal funds rate, with a hawkish stance possibly pressuring crypto prices. Bitcoin may test $91,500–$92,000 support, and holding above this level could signal a recovery toward $100,000. High volatility is expected due to macroeconomic uncertainty, with a possible dip early in the week before a potential rebound if dovish hints are given. The persistent 2.6% core PCE inflation and a 60% recession probability could dampen risk sentiment, affecting Bitcoin and altcoins. Political pressures, including Trump’s push for rate cuts and tariff policies, may raise concerns over Fed independence but could boost Bitcoin as a hedge. The key focus will be on Powell’s press conference for any signals on rate cuts in June and comments on tariffs, which could trigger a crypto rally if dovish tones emerge.
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