OPEC is going for volume again. Delegates from the alliance confirmed they’ve agreed in principle to increase production next month.
The plan is to add about 137,000 barrels per day, starting in October, as part of a larger strategy to take back lost market share. The group, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has already pushed forward an earlier phase of production hikes, and now they’re going ahead with the next one.
This is part of a bigger plan to bring back the 1.66 million barrels a day of cuts that were meant to stay in place until the end of 2026. That timeline has now been thrown out the window. If they stick to the pace of 137,000 barrels a month, the full rollback could be done in a year.
But it won’t be that clean. Some countries don’t have the spare capacity. Others are being told to sit out the increase to make up for earlier overproduction. So the real number is going to come in lower than advertised.
Saudi Arabia and Russia push through the pivot
The shift marks a full-blown strategy reversal by OPEC and its partners. The cartel used to fight tooth and nail to protect prices. Now? They’re chasing market share, no matter how crowded it gets.
Just months ago, OPEC+ shocked the market by restarting 2.2 million barrels per day of halted supply, a full year ahead of schedule. That decision blindsided traders who had been expecting a long freeze due to surplus risks.
So far, the gamble hasn’t broken the market. Yes, crude prices have fallen 12% this year. But the overall market has held up better than most expected. That’s giving Saudi Arabia more confidence to roll out even more barrels. And there’s more than oil at play. Donald Trump, back in the headlines, has been demanding lower prices as part of his inflation-fighting playbook. A supply flood serves his agenda. He’s also been using oil prices to put pressure on Russia over its war in Ukraine. The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, is scheduled to visit Washington in November.
So, yeah, timing is deliberate.
There’s still a gap between headlines and barrels. The group says one thing, but on-the-ground output depends on each country’s capabilities. Some producers, especially the smaller ones, just can’t keep up. A few have already exceeded their past quotas and are being told to hold back. For the rest, it’s go-time.
Traders watch OPEC while Asia hosts oil’s biggest party
Sunday’s meeting sent another message too: no one really knows what OPEC is going to do until it happens. At the start of the week, Bloomberg polled crude traders and analysts. The majority believed that OPEC+ would hold steady this month. Then, out of nowhere, rumors began swirling that an increase might be on the table, and those rumors became fact fast.
Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, has got a track record of shocking the market just to keep traders off balance. This weekend was another classic example.
Now, the group’s next move is going to dominate APPEC, the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference, kicking off this week in Singapore. It’s Asia’s biggest oil gathering, and this year’s mood is already edgy.
The International Energy Agency is forecasting a record oil glut in 2026, and concerns about oversupply are expected to dominate the discussions.
Of course, there are a few things that could support oil prices short-term. Cold winters drive heating demand. Lower interest rates could make commodities more attractive again. But the main story is still the looming glut. That’s the only thing anyone in Singapore is talking about.
The conference begins informally with a wave of private parties. TotalEnergies SE is hosting one at a hotel overlooking Marina Bay, but most guests are expected to be glued to their phones for updates on the OPEC+ decision. The gossip, as always, will flow faster at cocktail events than on stage.
Top oil firms are rolling out the red carpet. Saudi Aramco, PetroChina, Equinor, BP, and Vitol are all throwing parties.
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