Oracle has lost more than $463 billion in value since hitting a record high of $933 billion in September 2025.
That drop, just under 50%, has thrown the company out of the top 10 most valuable U.S. firms. It’s the latest blow to a company that investors once treated like a clean bet on artificial intelligence.
The drop started right after Oracle posted strong guidance last September for its cloud business, riding hype from rising AI demand. But that same AI trade is now getting crushed, and Oracle is getting hit the hardest.
Traders are now nervous about how much money is being thrown into AI infrastructure, and whether it’s going to pay off anytime soon.
AI spending, risky deals, and software weakness hit Oracle at once
Oracle told investors in December that it’s pouring even more money into AI data centers. That update sent its shares lower again. Then came the credit market’s reaction.
Oracle’s credit risk index spiked to its highest since 2009, making bondholders nervous. This happened as the company continued to raise tens of billions through note sales, both in its name and for projects it’s funding.
At the center of this is OpenAI. Oracle’s ties to the private AI company have started to look like a gamble. OpenAI isn’t profitable. And investors are starting to ask how much of Oracle’s stock value was just based on hopes that OpenAI would deliver.
“There’s some assumptions built in here about what OpenAI is going to spend and where are they getting that money and, you know, is this really going to happen,” said Eric Diton, president of Wealth Alliance. “Maybe Oracle stock got way ahead of fundamentals and now the market’s saying, alright, show me, I wanna see it.”
One more red flag: Blue Owl Capital, a key backer of Oracle’s and Meta’s data center builds, was left out of final talks on a Michigan project. Oracle said the deal’s still “on schedule,” but the stock didn’t take that well either.
Meanwhile, the entire software sector is under pressure. Names across the board are losing value as fears grow that AI will eat into traditional revenue. That pain got worse in mid-January, when Anthropic launched a new tool that pulled more money into newer names and away from old players like Oracle.
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