October 2025 is shaping up to be a defining month for Ripple, with two major regulatory decisions set to land at the same time. Crypto lawyer Bill Morgan says it could be “make-or-break” for the company, as both the SEC’s verdict on XRP ETFs and Ripple’s U.S. national banking license application are due.
SEC Delays Push XRP ETFs Into October
The U.S. SEC recently extended the review period for several spot XRP ETF applications, which were initially scheduled for August. Issuers like Grayscale, 21Shares, Bitwise, CoinShares, WisdomTree, Canary Capital, and Franklin Templeton are all waiting for approval. With the commission allowed only one 60-day delay, October is now the final deadline.
- October 18 for Grayscale’s filing
- October 19 for 21Shares
- October 20 for Bitwise
- October 24–25 for others like Canary Capital and WisdomTree
This means the SEC must deliver a decision by mid-to-late October. An approval would be groundbreaking, offering institutional investors a regulated path into XRP and potentially driving adoption and liquidity. A rejection, however, would be a setback for Ripple’s push into traditional markets.
XRP Price Impact
Following the SEC’s postponement of ETF decisions, XRP fell below the $3 mark, erasing its August gains and raising short-term bearish sentiment among traders. On-chain analyst Ali Martinez warned that XRP’s slip below the $3 support level increases the risk of a deeper correction. He highlighted that if XRP doesn’t quickly reclaim $3.30, it could fall further, with the next downside targets around $2.60 or even $2.
Ripple’s Banking License Review
At the same time, Ripple is awaiting a decision on its U.S. national banking license, filed with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). While the OCC outlines a 120-day review timeline, putting the deadline in late October, analysts suggest the process may not be that straightforward.
Crypto analyst JD argued that a realistic timeframe for approval is closer to 12–18 months, noting that the 120-day guideline is more procedural than practical. Still, should Ripple secure the license, it would become a federally regulated trust bank, enhancing its credibility and allowing RLUSD reserves to be held directly with the Federal Reserve.
What Next?
According to Bill Morgan, the timing makes October especially critical. “All these spot ETFs, including XRP spot ETFs being delayed until late October 2025. Then you have Ripple’s application for a national bank charter… which means by the end of October, a lot could happen at once,” he said.
With the SEC lawsuit behind Ripple, the company has a clearer path to grow within the U.S. financial system. If both the ETFs and banking license are approved, XRP could gain the regulatory clarity and institutional trust it has long needed. On the flip side, setbacks would stall momentum just as Ripple aims to expand its ecosystem.
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