In a recent episode of Crypto Law, Jeremy Hogan delved into the ongoing XRP SEC lawsuit and speculated on its potential outcome. He began by emphasizing the role of luck in legal battles, highlighting Ripple’s fortunate draw of Judge Torres for its case. Hogan then discussed a pivotal legal precedent, the Govil case, which emerged in October last year, reshaping the current lawsuits filed by the SEC.
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He anticipates Ripple could be penalized $100 million and face an injunction against institutional sales, citing the SEC’s difficulty in proving harm to investors or purchasers. Hogan expects a final judgment this summer, potentially in July or August, with both sides likely appealing, leading to rulings in the DCA Appeals Court next year.
The central focus of the discussion was on the SEC’s proposed judgment, which included injunctions and substantial monetary penalties against Ripple. Hogan dissected the SEC’s requests, particularly its demand for over $1 billion disgorgement, emphasizing the significant legal hurdle posed by the Govil case. He argued that the SEC’s case lacks evidence of actual losses to XRP buyers, making it challenging for them to justify such hefty penalties.
Possible Outcome of XRP vs SEC
Speculating on the likely outcome, Hogan predicted that Judge Torres might grant an injunction against future institutional sales of XRP by Ripple but could carve out exceptions for sales related to On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) transactions. He suggested that the SEC’s request for disgorgement might face substantial pushback, potentially resulting in no disgorgement being ordered. Instead, Hogan proposed that the judge might impose a civil penalty on Ripple, possibly around $100 million, to provide a middle ground.
Moreover, he anticipates that the final judgment would likely be issued in the summer, followed by appeals from both parties, leading to further legal proceedings in the appellate court next year. He concluded on a note that both parties would file notices of appeal after the final judgment, leading to further legal proceedings in the DCA Appeals Court, with a ruling expected next year.
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