Polymarket predicts just a 35% chance of a Solana spot ETF approval by July 31, reflecting shifting SEC dynamics. Despite this, the SEC’s acknowledgment of Grayscale’s amended Solana ETF application marks a notable first, signaling a slight change in approach. Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas view it as a small but significant step influenced by new SEC leadership. Ongoing legal battles, including SOL’s security status, complicate the process. The final deadline for Grayscale’s application is October 11, with other issuers like Bitwise and VanEck also in the race.

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