Strategy (MSTR) has long been the poster child for corporate Bitcoin adoption. With 597,3250 BTC on its balance sheet, valued at over $66.75 billion. But behind this giant bet, new filings show risks that could force them to sell Bitcoin sooner than people think.
From surprise tax bills to huge debts, here’s why Strategy’s Bitcoin fortress might not be as secure as it looks.
Big Unrealized Gains, Real Tax Bills
Strategy bought all its Bitcoin for around $42.4 billion, but now it’s worth over $66.67 billion. With a recent change in accounting rules (ASU 2023-08) means Strategy now has to report the value of its Bitcoin at current market prices, not just what it paid for it.
Starting in 2026, this could mean a 15% minimum tax on these “paper gains.” If this happens, Strategy might owe billions in taxes, even if they haven’t sold a single Bitcoin.
And they’re not sugarcoating it. The filing clearly states that if needed, they might sell Bitcoin to cover the tax bills.
Taxes Could Force a Bitcoin Sale
In its recent SEC filing (Form 8-K), Strategy warns that if the tax hits, they may need to sell Bitcoin or borrow more money to cover the cost. The company admits its software business alone won’t bring in enough cash to pay these taxes plus other expenses.
Strategy’s money problems don’t stop at taxes.
They have $8.2 billion in debt and $3.4 billion in preferred stock, creating over $350 million every year in interest and dividend payments. Some dividends must be paid in cash and can’t be skipped without penalties.
Storage Isn’t Risk-Free
There’s another hidden risk, if their Bitcoin custodian ever goes bankrupt, Strategy could lose access to its coins. In that situation, they’d be just another creditor trying to get their Bitcoin back.
Strategy says any sudden shock could weaken the value of their holding or push them to sell faster than planned.
Cash Flow Isn’t Keeping Up
Strategy admits their software business isn’t generating enough money to pay off mounting obligations. Their annual cash burden, between interest and dividends, now sits north of $350 million.
That includes $36.5 million in interest and $315.9 million owed to preferred shareholders. Some of those dividends must be paid in cash, no exceptions. If they can’t raise enough through new funding, they may have to sell Bitcoin.
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