TON (The Open Network) is on track to overtake Ether in holder numbers by the end of the year.

According to Maarten, a Community Analyst at CryptoQuant, TON has attracted around 500,000 new holders daily over the past month, pushing its total count to 112 million. With Ethereum at 137 million holders, TON’s rapid rise could close the gap by December 20 if current trend holds steady.

But this isn’t set in stone. Maarten points out two important assumptions. First, TON’s growth could slow. If the daily increase drops by just one standard deviation, TON won’t cross Ethereum’s count until February 3, 2025.

Second, Ethereum holders are also rising, albeit slowly. This gradual growth isn’t visible in today’s numbers but could impact projections. Still, even with these variables, it’s likely that TON will soon have more holders than Ethereum.

TON’s risk, market position, and the Sharpe Ratio

The Sharpe Ratio for TON has been declining, signaling lower volatility and reduced risk. A lower Sharpe Ratio means TON is becoming less volatile, and its risk-return profile is improving.

But with Bitcoin still moving within a narrow range, further drops in risk might come before the next big market shift. This risk decrease could be good news for those already in TON, though it doesn’t mean there’s no risk left.

Meanwhile, the market isn’t giving TON a free ride. Bears are pressing TON’s price down, attempting to break through a key support at $5.

If they succeed, TON could drop to a critical support zone between $4.72 and $4.44. Maarten warns that if this area breaks, it could set up a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, pulling the price toward $3.50.

On the other hand, a price rebound at this level could mean increased demand at lower prices. A move above the moving averages could then signal a comeback by the bulls, which investors will be watching closely.

Ethereum, though, is seeing massive outflows. Coinbase recorded the second-largest ETH outflow in three months when 543,000 ETH (over $1.3 billion) left the exchange in a single hour.

This large-scale transaction could be institutional buying rather than an individual purchase. But it might also be an internal Coinbase transfer. Verification is pending, but if this outflow is indeed institutional, it would be a sign of surprisingly huge interest in ETH from institutions.

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