The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November is set to be released at 8:30 AM ET (7:00 PM IST) today. Analysts expect a headline reading of 3.1% and a core reading of 3.0%, with month-over-month growth projected at around 0.3%.
This CPI release is particularly important as the October report was canceled due to government shutdown-related data disruptions, leaving the Federal Reserve and markets partially in the dark. Investors are closely monitoring services for signs of sustained disinflation and goods to assess remaining tariff-driven price pressures.
Historical Market Reaction
In prior CPI releases, the S&P 500 rose 10 days later in 7 out of 8 cases, with October being the exception due to a hawkish FOMC. With the Fed meeting now behind us and seasonal “Santa rally” tailwinds approaching, markets are generally expected to move higher.
Potential Impact on Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC), Solana (SOL), and other crypto assets are highly sensitive to CPI data due to its influence on liquidity and Fed policy expectations.
Bullish Scenario
- CPI at or below 3.1% could ease Fed concerns
- Likely decline in the US Dollar Index (DXY)
- Increased liquidity may boost crypto prices
Bearish Scenario
- Hotter-than-expected CPI may keep the Fed cautious
- Risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, could face downward pressure
Bitcoin Technical Outlook
Traders expect potential liquidity sweeps and reactions around order blocks. While short-term volatility is likely, the higher timeframe trend for Bitcoin remains cautious, with the CPI data serving as a key near-term catalyst.
If November CPI meets or falls below 3.1%, cryptocurrencies may benefit from renewed bullish momentum alongside stocks. Conversely, a hotter reading could dampen market sentiment. Investors and traders should brace for volatile market reactions following the release.
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