October, widely known in crypto circles as “Uptober,” is historically the most bullish month for Bitcoin and Ethereum, with an average return of almost 21%. But according to well-known trader Ash Crypto, this year’s ride may not be so smooth. He believes the market could be setting up a trap that will shake out many retail traders before the real fireworks begin.

Here’s why he believes so.

Warning of a Mid-October Drop

According to Ash, the first half of October may trick traders into believing “PUMPtober” is real. For Bitcoin, bearish technical indicators like the 4-day moving average cross point to a potential correction toward $105,000, while Ethereum may drop near $3,800 between October 15–20.

Analysts highlight that many investors who accumulated positions in late summer are now securing profits, resulting in short-term volatility and sell-offs. The move, he says, will liquidate overconfident bulls and retail investors who buy in too early.

This sharp correction, in his view, will set the stage for the real move. By shaking out weak hands, the market creates room for stronger rallies ahead.

Q4 Could Be Explosive

Ash predicts that once traders turn bearish and shorts pile up, the market will flip direction. In the last ten days of October, he expects a breakout that could send Bitcoin surging to $150,000–$180,000 and Ethereum to $8,000–$12,000.

Since Bitcoin’s inception, October has delivered positive monthly returns 73% of the time, with average gains of roughly 29%. In 10 of the last 12 Octobers, Bitcoin posted net gains, including a 28.5% jump in 2023 and a 10.8% move in 2024

He also projects that this rally will finally unlock the long-awaited altcoin season, with select altcoins potentially gaining 10x to 50x over the next three to four months.

Planning for Both Sides

Ash also made it clear that even though he’s 85% invested in the market, he’s keeping 15% in cash. This way, he can benefit if the market pumps immediately, but he also has reserves ready to buy the dip if the correction comes first. 

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