If Kamala Harris takes the Oval, crypto might finally get a break from the current Democratic regulatory nightmare. But TD Cowen is warning that a Kamala administration might not be all sunshine and rainbows for crypto.
Sure, Kamala could be less hostile than Biden, who has been like a dog with a bone, thanks to his SEC Chair Gary Gensler and Senator Elizabeth Warren, both of whom seem to have made it their life’s mission to give crypto a hard time.
Kamala, who surged in the polls since entering the race, hasn’t exactly put her cards on the table regarding crypto. This leaves the industry hanging, unsure if it should be hopeful or start prepping for more of the same.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump has done a complete 180 on crypto. The guy who once called Bitcoin a scam is now all-in, rubbing shoulders with the crypto crowd and even planning to show up at a major conference in Nashville.
But we should all know that just because Trump is cozying up to crypto doesn’t mean his second term will be any easier for the industry.
History shows that what a candidate says and what they actually do once in office are often worlds apart. As TD Cowen’s Jaret Seiberg puts it:
“Trump’s recent crypto love fest doesn’t guarantee his regulators will go easy on the industry if he wins.”
What Kamala’s crypto approach could be
Seiberg added that
“Kamala is likely more receptive to the industry and may support policies that encourage its growth, but it’s hard to see her going against efforts to tighten crypto investor protections.”
That means the SEC’s grip on the industry isn’t loosening anytime soon. The agency, under Gensler’s watch, has made a name for itself by regulating through enforcement rather than offering clear guidelines.
And guess what? That’s probably not going to change much under Kamala. But to be honest, whether it’s Trump or Kamala, the crypto industry might still be in for a rough ride.
Both candidates could sign off on crypto market structure legislation if Congress ever gets its act together. However, Seiberg believes any bill that Kamala signs might have stricter rules around investor protection.
Still, the difference might not be big enough to matter. And getting any crypto legislation passed during an election year is a long shot.
The battle for the blue wall
While Kamala has Trump on the back foot, scrambling to come up with a message that sticks, the race is far from over. The two are fighting tooth and nail to win over voters, especially in key swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—often referred to as the “Blue Wall.”
Democratic lawmakers in these states are hopeful that Kamala can pull off a win, but they’re not kidding themselves about the uphill battle they’re facing.
At 59, Kamala is nearly two decades younger than Trump, who’s pushing 80, and would make history as the first female U.S. president if she wins.
Her campaign speeches are notably shorter and punchier than Biden’s, often lasting under 30 minutes, but they pack a punch. On Trump, Kamala said:
“This campaign is about two very different visions for the future of our nation: one, ours, focused on the future, and the other focused on the past.”
Alongside her running mate Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, she fired up the crowd, declaring, “In this fight, we are joyful warriors.”
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