Bitcoin started the week on a positive note, going up by 0.6% and hitting $69,018.9 early Monday. This slight bump came after a tough weekend of losses, which got many traders worried. What’s interesting is the 42% spike in trading volume over the past day—an indicator that people are paying attention and ready to jump in. But what’s behind all this back-and-forth?

Election Buzz: Why It’s Making Crypto Jittery

With the U.S. presidential elections around the corner, the crypto market is getting a bit shaky. The race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is closer than expected, and this has made things uncertain. Trump is known to be more crypto-friendly, which usually sits well with investors. Harris, meanwhile, wants more regulations but hasn’t been super clear on what that looks like. Prediction sites like Polymarket recently showed Harris’ odds going up to 43% from 35%, while Trump’s fell to 57% from 66%. This shift in numbers is making Bitcoin’s price wobble.

The Fed’s Role: Why It’s More Than Just Rates

While the election has everyone guessing, the Federal Reserve’s next move is also weighing on the market. The Fed is set to cut rates by 25 basis points in November, following a bigger 50-point cut in September. Traders are keeping an eye on what the Fed signals next. Inflation has eased a bit, with September’s rate at 2.1%, down from 2.3% in August. Wage growth also slowed down, with a modest 0.8% rise last quarter—the lowest since 2021. Since the Fed’s meeting is just a day after the election, any decisions could stir things up in the crypto world.

What to Expect

A scenario where inflation cools but the economy stays strong is still on the table, but it needs careful watching. Right now, there’s a 94% chance of a 25-point rate cut in November, and a 70% chance of another in December. If the Fed hints at more cuts, Bitcoin could get a boost. But don’t forget, the election result might just throw a wrench in the works.

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